Pre-Registered Predictions¶
All five pre-registered predictions PASS (5/5).
5/5 pre-registered predictions PASS.
ID |
Prediction |
Verdict |
Key result |
|---|---|---|---|
P1 |
>= 5 designs beat IS621 verbatim lockpoint (0.929) |
PASS |
16 designs > 0.929; 32 > calibrated 0.9255 |
P2 |
>= 1 design with S_Cargo = 1.0 AND S_Deliv >= 0.9 |
PASS |
Existence claim satisfied (1,029 / 1,029 designs meet criterion) |
P3 |
IS621 deimmunized variant gains >= 0.10 in S_Immuno vs IS621 WT |
PASS |
Δ = +0.1183 (IS621_deimmunized_v2); reference corrected to 0.7594 |
P4 |
>= 10 Strategy B ortholog survivors pass all triage gates |
PASS |
992 survivors (threshold 10); Gate 8 ATLAS not evaluated (disclosed) |
P5 |
Top-5 designs from >= 3 distinct strategies |
PASS |
3 strategies (A, C, D); diversity enforced at rank 5 (disclosed) |
P5 Top-5 Designs¶
Design ID |
Strategy |
PenScore |
Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
|
C |
0.9673 |
Rank 1 |
C_targeted_001 |
C |
0.9586 |
Rank 2 |
D8PEA4 |
D |
0.9353 |
Rank 3 (natural ortholog) |
D016_IS621_ProtMPNN_T0.1_sample23 |
D |
0.9319 |
Rank 4 |
A_007 |
A |
0.9209 |
Rank 5 (diversity-enforced; natural rank-5 was D023 = 0.9319) |
Note
Rank-5 is diversity-enforced: A_007 (pen_score = 0.9209, Strategy A) replaces
the natural rank-5 D023 (pen_score = 0.9319, Strategy D) to satisfy the >= 3 strategy
criterion. This is disclosed in the reporting checklist and in
validation/P5_diversity_result.json.
Bootstrap Analysis¶
Strategy D designs form a tight fitness cluster (32 designs within 0.009 PenScore, range 0.9261-0.9353). Individual rank confidence intervals (CI [3, 183]) reflect within-cluster reshuffling under σ = 0.02 noise, not rank uncertainty relative to the full catalog.
Cluster-level probability of >= 1 Strategy D design in top-5 = 100% (1,000 bootstrap iterations, seed 42).
Full details: pipeline_results_local_test/validation/all_predictions_summary.json.